PUBLIC RECORD · COMPLETED RESULTS ONLY//PUBLIC RECORD · COMPLETED RESULTS ONLY//
THE DAY6:30 AM CST YESTERDAY GRADED8:00 AM CST MODEL BUILDS~1:00 PM CST ALT LINES PRICE2:00 PM CST RE-SCREEN~3:30 PM CST LINEUPS → PICKS FREEZE5:00 PM CST TOMORROW EARLY LOOK6:40 PM CST TOMORROW SCOUT7:45–11:45 PM CST TOMORROW BOARD REFRESHES

THE
RECORD

how the slate actually did · scoreboard, not proof of an edge
ALL NON-NEUTRAL LEGS1253-1087
ALL LEANS ≥0.5752-624
WIN%54.7%
95% CI52–57%
BEAT-LINE (2809 LEGS)53.1%
CONVICTION LADDER · SMALL EDGE → MID → BET-STRENGTH52% → 54% → 55%
01

OFFICIAL CARD RECORDS

three official card records · picked in advance, locked, graded in public
THE OVERNIGHT CARD
picked the night before off opening lines · locked 6:00 AM CST · no edits after
LATESTWED 09/23 · 2-0 · no qualifying picks sinceALL-TIME52-32WIN%62%VS CLOSE+2.0 PTS · beat close 15/32LAST SLATES
THE MORNING CARD
the 8:00 AM CST card frozen at its posted lines · kept visible all day · graded win or lose
LATESTTHU 09/24 · 1-0 · no qualifying picks sinceALL-TIME29-22WIN%57%VS CLOSE+0.8 PTS · beat close 5/12LAST SLATES
THE CONFIRMED CARD
each pick freezes the second the opposing lineup posts · what you see is what gets graded
LATESTFRI 08/28 · 0-1 · no qualifying picks sinceALL-TIME36-23WIN%61%VS CLOSE+0.5 PTS · beat close 13/47LAST SLATES
HOW TO READ THE RECORDfrozen = picked in advance and locked · results can’t be massaged after the factWIN% needs ~58% to beat the juice · a winning record can still lose moneyVS CLOSE = our price vs the closing price · beating the close is the only edge that lasts
the honest read: the record is ahead of breakeven but closing-line value is positive but thin. The edge is NOT proven. the evidence remains provisional until closing-line value holds on meaningful volume.
02

THE LAST 3 SLATES

all model leans · every model lean, graded · the official cards above are the posted record
TUE 10/272-0ALL 2 arms that PITCHED · 2 lined and graded · 0 pitched unlined
PITCHERLINEOURSOUR LEANACTUALW/L
Griffin Jax3.55.1▲ OVER 3.56 KW
Dustin May2.54.1▲ OVER 2.53 KW
MON 10/260-2
GASSER O3.5 · 3K ✗ PERALTA O4.5 · 4K ✗
SAT 10/242-0
HENDERSON U5.5 · 4K ✓ RASMUSSEN U7.5 · 4K ✓
03

CLOSING LINE VALUE

slate of 2026-10-15 · every frozen track · OVN = night-before entry · 8:00 AM CST = morning-card entry · CONF = lineup-post entry · same pick can appear once per track · de-vigged fair probability, same line · the durable edge test · last 7 slates: +0.7 PTS avg · beat close 2/5
PITCHERPICKENTRYCLOSECLVRESULT
CONF Tyler GlasnowO 5.557.2%59.0%+1.8 PTS ✓W · 6K
MODEL OUTPUTS · TRANSPARENTLY TRACKED · NOT BETTING ADVICE. "OUR K%" IS A CALIBRATED PROBABILITY (CAPS ≈ 70% BY DESIGN). THE MODEL IS AT-MARKET; CLOSING-LINE VALUE IS THE TEST. COLOR KEY · VOLT = OUR MODEL · GOLD = FROZEN/CARDED · BLUE = THE MARKET · ORANGE = OVER · VIOLET = UNDER · GREEN/RED = LIVE & RESULTS ONLY. THIS TAB IS TOMORROW ONLY · LIVE ACTION IS ON THE BOARD.