PUBLIC RECORD · COMPLETED RESULTS ONLY//PUBLIC RECORD · COMPLETED RESULTS ONLY//

THE DAY6:30 AM CST YESTERDAY GRADED8:00 AM CST MODEL BUILDS11:10 AM CST FIRST PITCH~1:00 PM CST ALT LINES PRICE2:00 PM CST RE-SCREEN~3:30 PM CST LINEUPS → PICKS FREEZE5:00 PM CST TOMORROW EARLY LOOK6:40 PM CST TOMORROW SCOUT7:45–11:45 PM CST TOMORROW BOARD REFRESHES

THE
RECORD

how the slate actually did · scoreboard, not proof of an edge

ALL NON-NEUTRAL LEGS1065-920

ALL LEANS ≥0.5652-528

WIN%55.3%

95% CI52–58%

BEAT-LINE (2369 LEGS)53.3%

CONVICTION LADDER · SMALL EDGE → MID → BET-STRENGTH51% → 54% → 57%

OFFICIAL CARD RECORDS

three official card records · picked in advance, locked, graded in public

THE OVERNIGHT CARD

picked the night before off opening lines · locked 6:00 AM CST · no edits after

LATESTSUN 09/13 · 1-0ALL-TIME46-32WIN%59%VS CLOSE+1.5 PTS · beat close 13/29LAST SLATES

THE MORNING CARD

the 8:00 AM CST card frozen at its posted lines · kept visible all day · graded win or lose

LATESTMON 09/07 · 0-1 · no qualifying picks sinceALL-TIME25-21WIN%54%VS CLOSE+0.2 PTS · beat close 3/10LAST SLATES

THE CONFIRMED CARD

each pick freezes the second the opposing lineup posts · what you see is what gets graded

LATESTFRI 08/28 · 0-1 · no qualifying picks sinceALL-TIME36-23WIN%61%VS CLOSE+0.5 PTS · beat close 13/47LAST SLATES

HOW TO READ THE RECORDfrozen = picked in advance and locked · results can’t be massaged after the factWIN% needs ~58% to beat the juice · a winning record can still lose moneyVS CLOSE = our price vs the closing price · beating the close is the only edge that lasts

the honest read: the record is ahead of breakeven but closing-line value is positive but thin. The edge is NOT proven. the evidence remains provisional until closing-line value holds on meaningful volume.

THE LAST 3 SLATES

all model leans · every model lean, graded · the official cards above are the posted record

TUE 09/087-6ALL 29 arms that PITCHED · 13 lined and graded · 0 pitched unlined · 15 in play now · 2 not started · those rows publish at first pitch

PITCHER	LINE	OURS	OUR LEAN	ACTUAL	W/L
Andrew Painter	4.5	5.1	▲ OVER 4.5	6 K	W
Gabriel Hughes	3.5	4.0	▲ OVER 3.5	6 K	W
Sandy Alcantara	4.5	4.1	▼ UNDER 4.5	1 K	W
Reid Detmers	5.5	5.8	▲ OVER 5.5	9 K	W
Patrick Sandoval	5.5	5.8	▲ OVER 5.5	7 K	W
Drew Anderson	4.5	4.2	▼ UNDER 4.5	4 K	W
AJ Smith-Shawver	3.5	3.5	▼ UNDER 3.5	3 K	W
Hayden Wesneski CARD	3.5	4.6	▲ OVER 3.5	3 K	L
Freddy Peralta	4.5	5.2	▲ OVER 4.5	2 K	L
Dean Kremer	4.5	4.8	▲ OVER 4.5	3 K	L
Sean Manaea	4.5	4.8	▲ OVER 4.5	4 K	L
Tanner Bibee	4.5	4.7	▲ OVER 4.5	1 K	L
Cam Schlittler	7.5	7.5	▼ UNDER 7.5	10 K	L
Riley Cornelio	—	4.9	NO LINE	live…	PEND
Corbin Burnes	3.5	4.9	▲ OVER 3.5	live…	PEND
Bryce Miller	4.5	5.8	▲ OVER 4.5	live…	PEND
Michael Wacha	4.5	3.7	▼ UNDER 4.5	live…	PEND
Jacob Misiorowski	7.5	8.2	▲ OVER 7.5	live…	PEND
Sean Burke	5.5	6.2	▲ OVER 5.5	live…	PEND
Bubba Chandler	4.5	5.2	▲ OVER 4.5	live…	PEND
Jack Perkins	3.5	3.9	▲ OVER 3.5	live…	PEND
Landen Roupp	4.5	4.9	▲ OVER 4.5	live…	PEND
Nick Lodolo	3.5	3.9	▲ OVER 3.5	live…	PEND
José Soriano	5.5	5.2	▼ UNDER 5.5	live…	PEND
Tarik Skubal	8.5	8.3	▼ UNDER 8.5	live…	PEND
Casey Mize	4.5	4.3	▼ UNDER 4.5	live…	PEND
David Peterson	4.5	4.6	▲ OVER 4.5	live…	PEND
Quinn Mathews	5.5	5.5	▼ UNDER 5.5	live…	PEND
Brandon Young	3.5	3.5	NO LEAN · AT LINE	2 K	UNDER HIT

MON 09/077-15

BURNS O4.5 · 5K ✓ RYAN O3.5 · 7K ✓ MELTON U4.5 · 3K ✓ LOPEZ U4.5 · 1K ✓ MCGREEVY O3.5 · 4K ✓ TONG O4.5 · 7K ✓ HOLMES O3.5 · 6K ✓ PIVETTA O4.5 · 2K ✗ WEBB U5.5 · 8K ✗ BELLO U4.5 · 7K ✗ LAW O0.5 · 0K ✗ IRVIN O4.5 · 3K ✗ RODRIGUEZ O4.5 · 3K ✗ PÉREZ O5.5 · 5K ✗ GASSER U4.5 · 5K ✗ LUZARDO U7.5 · 12K ✗ BOYD U4.5 · 7K ✗ ROGERS U4.5 · 6K ✗ CAMERON U3.5 · 7K ✗ SHEEHAN U6.5 · 10K ✗ CANTILLO O5.5 · 3K ✗ CEASE O7.5 · 6K ✗ +3 unlined 1 scratched

SUN 09/060-0

NO LINES POSTED (feed outage) +30 unlined 1 scratched

CLOSING LINE VALUE

slate of 2026-09-13 · every frozen track · OVN = night-before entry · 8:00 AM CST = morning-card entry · CONF = lineup-post entry · same pick can appear once per track · de-vigged fair probability, same line · the durable edge test · last 7 slates: +5.0 PTS avg · beat close 3/4

PITCHER	PICK	ENTRY	CLOSE	CLV	RESULT
OVN Jacob Lopez	U 5.5 line 5.5→4.5	—	41.5%	frozen post-start · no CLV	W · 3K
CONF Logan Webb	U 5 line 5→4.5	—	45.8%	frozen post-start · no CLV	L · 7K
CONF Logan Webb	U 5	—	45.8%	frozen post-start · no CLV	L · 7K

MODEL OUTPUTS · TRANSPARENTLY TRACKED · NOT BETTING ADVICE. "OUR K%" IS A CALIBRATED PROBABILITY (CAPS ≈ 70% BY DESIGN). THE MODEL IS AT-MARKET; CLOSING-LINE VALUE IS THE TEST. COLOR KEY · VOLT = OUR MODEL · GOLD = FROZEN/CARDED · BLUE = THE MARKET · ORANGE = OVER · VIOLET = UNDER · GREEN/RED = LIVE & RESULTS ONLY. THIS TAB IS TOMORROW ONLY · LIVE ACTION IS ON THE BOARD.